War prediction markets are a national-security threat

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets.

https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268

While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I honestly think the whole concept of betting on real world events is ludicrous to begin with, including sports. It always incentivizes behavior that doesn't naturally occur (the trope of fixing horse races comes to mind).

The author spends the first paragraph of the article talking about how n number of users bet x on a specific outcome and they won. They fail to account for the many others who bet on a different outcome and lost.

I watched polymarket like a hawk for weeks before the attack and am incredibly familiar with the numbers. Fact is, there were no indications on Polymarket that an attack was happening that morning. The chances of an attack was like 10 percent if I remember correctly.

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

At this point the US government is a national security threat (to itself).

Well, the natural thing to do then is to allow cryptocurrency bets on our opponents' actions. The men in their governments will likely eagerly give up valuable information in exchange for money: distributed espionage.

Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2]

This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success. It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable and also exactly what I seem to recall him publicly predicting, albeit without a strict deadline.[3]

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86yjnw4x49o

[2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-says-he-g...

[3] https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2026/03/01/khamenei-killed-...

Rhetorical question: why do non-insiders still bet in these markets? Surely, after all of the focus on insiders, people will begin to realize that betting without insider knowledge is a fool’s gambit..

> The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours

Yeah, I heard the same thing at the same time from several friends. And I'm not talking top brass, so it must have been pretty obvious at that point.

https://archive.fo/p1aDH

Lindsey Graham candidly admitting to being the agent of a foreign country is a National-Security threat.

Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47211476 - “Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict” (morningstar.com)

97 points | 5 days ago | 55 comments

Also from The Atlantic about prediction markets: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/central-lie-p... - “A Technology for a Low-Trust Society”

To whatever extent this is true, one would also expect it to be manipulated by all interested state actors.

Statistical clueless amateurs found something they did not like, but of course were unable to convert their suspicions into something sound. They do not even think about it. Nevertheless a big sensation was anounced. I am tired of this.

This is a real thing that has been proposed, going back at least to 90s cypherpunk culture [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March.

I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me wonder -- is this bet a remarkable occurence in the data, or just one trade in a sea of similar trades? _Would_ somebody have been able to guess it? I looked for the original market[0], and am surprised by two things:

1. There was lots of activity around that value when the order was placed, so I don't think the trade would have alerted anyone [1].

2. Polymarket lists the trade as happening _19 days ago_, Feb 16! I don't understand why polymarket says it happened feb 16, when all the news I've seen reports it happening just before the strikes. I'm guessing there's a bug in the way polymarket displays past trades?

Note that if polymarket is displaying the history of trades incorrectly, my claim #1 may not hold.

E̶d̶i̶t̶:̶ ̶M̶a̶g̶a̶m̶y̶m̶a̶n̶'̶s̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶t̶o̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶p̶o̶l̶y̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶r̶e̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶r̶p̶r̶i̶s̶i̶n̶g̶.̶ ̶L̶o̶o̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶o̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶i̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶j̶u̶s̶t̶ ̶_̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶_̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶m̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶l̶o̶s̶e̶[̶2̶]̶.̶ ̶A̶m̶ ̶I̶ ̶m̶i̶s̶r̶e̶a̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶d̶a̶t̶a̶?̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶d̶o̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶o̶t̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶i̶d̶d̶l̶e̶ ̶e̶a̶s̶t̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶_̶a̶r̶e̶n̶'̶t̶_̶ ̶e̶x̶c̶l̶u̶s̶i̶v̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶;̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶p̶l̶e̶n̶t̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶t̶u̶f̶f̶ ̶t̶o̶o̶ ̶(̶c̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶P̶M̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶T̶h̶a̶i̶l̶a̶n̶d̶,̶ ̶B̶i̶t̶c̶o̶i̶n̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶c̶e̶s̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶m̶u̶l̶t̶i̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶d̶a̶t̶e̶s̶,̶ ̶S̶P̶5̶0̶0̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶u̶p̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶,̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶n̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶W̶i̶m̶b̶l̶e̶d̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶a̶b̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶s̶)̶.̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶a̶c̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶s̶e̶ ̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶m̶e̶ ̶w̶o̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶j̶u̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶d̶i̶c̶t̶o̶r̶.̶ I was reading the trades ordered by profit, so only the successes were showing. Order by date to see Magamyman's failures. Thanks @stevenwaterman for catching this.

[0] https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-...

[1] https://snipboard.io/DP1MWK.jpg

[2] https://polymarket.com/profile/%40Magamyman

I think it's safe to say that beside national security risks. Allowing unrestricted betting on pretty much anything in the world is just not something we should have...

Betting was once a vice overseen by the mob -- and those addicted to it were rightly viewed as pathetic figures, akin to serious alcoholics. Now betting pervades nearly every aspect of Anglosphere life. This transformation, which has taken place over the past 100 years but has really picked up steam over the last 15, has not been an improvement. It's net negative for society, and the evidence on this is very clear.

Prediction markets are the worst and most insidious manifestation of this phenomenon. They reward insider trading and may also induce people to seek outcomes that are undesirable for society at large. (e.g. in tfa.) There's literally no way this experiment ends well -- which is to say that there's no way this ends in "markets" that benefit and enlighten the common man.

I look forward to the pendulum swinging the other way. Even with such a broken political system, it might.

This presumes that the nation's security is bolstered by the government's ability to keep secrets. It strikes me that, even if this is true in some ways, the opposite is true in others.

It's 100% legal if you're in the inside circle

Pretty sure war thunder forums still take the cake on that one. The lulz motive is far higher than the profit motive.

I said this in another thread, but if you were to ask me "what is the biggest 180 you've made on some political or policy question in the last decade", it would for sure be prediction markets. I used to be all-in on the idea after reading Caplan, Taleb etc.: make people have "skin in the game" on a grand scale and we can have better predictions and better policy! But what a disaster they've been in practice: it's just a new avenue for government corruption and ruining your life with gambling. And now apparently a nat-sec problem as well.

Just another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March.

Good thing that Polymarket gives such a good signal unlike such subtle clues as carrier group movements.

These are scraps, so far. Now, what could you do if you had access to both markets and the Executive? About 4 billions, it would seem.

You could just watch the movement of tankers and jets to the middle east on flight trackers. It was extremely easy to see this coming.

Note: the owner of the Atlantic has ties to Epstein and Israel. They are extremely biased on anything to do with this war in Iran.

Apologies for going in the weeds on a general concept that is 100% valid, but it expends a couple of paragraphs on this so I must-

"Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user."

We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr. He was in his own home at the same time that the entire world could see the enormous buildup of resources the US was placing in the area. Trump did exactly the same tired "will he or won't he" that he has done for various other actions.

An attack was the most obvious event on the planet. This isn't some magical ret-conning, but anyone with a functioning brain could predicted the outcome.

I think the Polymarket angle to this is more that people were betting on whether he would choose existence over martyrdom. He could have hidden in countless places and sent various tirade videos for years, Osama-style, but this 86 year old man just decided to wait for the bombs.

And on Venezuela, anyone who thinks that was just a fantastically successful op is not rational. Clearly Trump had buy-in by either the Russians -- in return for some favours on Ukraine -- or various members in the Venezuela military (or most likely of all, both). Seeing several CH-47s flying over an entirely predictable target area utterly guarantees this.

Venezuela was a coup that levered the US military to fulfil it cleanly. With absolutely and complete certainty.

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