I've yet to be convinced by any article, including this one, that attempts to draw boxes around what coding agents are and aren't good at in a way that is robust on a 6 to 12 month horizon.
I agree that the examples listed here are relatable, and I've seen similar in my uses of various coding harnesses, including, to some degree, ones driven by opus 4.5. But my general experience with using LLMs for development over the last few years has been that:
1. Initially models could at best assemble a simple procedural or compositional sequences of commands or functions to accomplish a basic goal, perhaps meeting tests or type checking, but with no overall coherence,
2. To being able to structure small functions reasonably,
3. To being able to structure large functions reasonably,
4. To being able to structure medium-sized files reasonably,
5. To being able to structure large files, and small multi-file subsystems, somewhat reasonably.
So the idea that they are now falling down on the multi-module or multi-file or multi-microservice level is both not particularly surprising to me and also both not particularly indicative of future performance. There is a hierarchy of scales at which abstraction can be applied, and it seems plausible to me that the march of capability improvement is a continuous push upwards in the scale at which agents can reasonably abstract code.
Alternatively, there could be that there is a legitimate discontinuity here, at which anything resembling current approaches will max out, but I don't see strong evidence for it here.
It feels like a lot of people keep falling into the trap of thinking we’ve hit a plateau, and that they can shift from “aggressively explore and learn the thing” mode to “teach people solid facts” mode.
A week ago Scott Hanselman went on the Stack Overflow podcast to talk about AI-assisted coding. I generally respect that guy a lot, so I tuned in and… well it was kind of jarring. The dude kept saying things in this really confident and didactic (teacherly) tone that were months out of date.
In particular I recall him making the “You’re absolutely right!” joke and asserting that LLMs are generally very sycophantic, and I was like “Ah, I guess he’s still on Claude Code and hasn’t tried Codex with GPT 5”. I haven’t heard an LLM say anything like that since October, and in general I find GPT 5.x to actually be a huge breakthrough in terms of asserting itself when I’m wrong and not flattering my every decision. But that news (which would probably be really valuable to many people listening) wasn’t mentioned on the podcast I guess because neither of the guys had tried Codex recently.
And I can’t say I blame them: It’s really tough to keep up with all the changes but also spend enough time in one place to learn anything deeply. But I think a lot of people who are used to “playing the teacher role” may need to eat a slice of humble pie and get used to speaking in uncertain terms until such a time as this all starts to slow down.
> in general I find GPT 5.x to actually be a huge breakthrough in terms of asserting itself when I’m wrong
That's just a different bias purposefully baked into GPT-5's engineered personality on post-training. It always tries to contradict the user, including the cases where it's confidently wrong, and keeps justifying the wrong result in a funny manner if pressed or argued with (as in, it would have never made that obvious mistake if it wasn't bickering with the user). GPT-5.0 in particular was extremely strongly finetuned to do this. And in longer replies or multiturn convos, it falls into a loop on contradictory behavior far too easily. This is no better than sycophancy. LLMs need an order of magnitude better nuance/calibration/training, this requires human involvement and scales poorly.
Fundamental LLM phenomena (ICL, repetition, serial position biases, consequences of RL-based reasoning etc) haven't really changed, and they're worth studying for a layman to get some intuition. However, they vary a lot model to model due to subtle architectural and training differences, and impossible to keep up because there are so many models and so few benchmarks that measure these phenomena.
By the time I switched to GPT 5 we were already on 5.1, so I can't speak to 5.0. All I can say is that if the answer came down to something like "push the bias in the other direction and hope we land in the right spot"... well, I think they landed somewhere pretty good.
Don't get me wrong, I get a little tired of it ending turns with "if you want me to do X, say the word." But usually X is actually a good or at least reasonable suggestion, so I generally forgive it for that.
To your larger point: I get that a lot of this comes down to choices made about fine tuning and can be easily manipulated. But to me that's fine. I care more about if the resulting model is useful to me than I do about how they got there.
Why is it every time anyone has a critique someone has to say “oh but you aren’t using model X, which clearly never has this problem and is far better”?
Yet the data doesn’t show all that much difference between SOTA models. So I have a hard time believing it.
GP here: My problem with a lot of studies and data is that they seem to measure how good LLMs are at a particular task, but often don't account for "how good the LLM is to work with". The latter feels extremely difficult to quantify, but matters a lot when you're having a couple dozen turns of conversation with an LLM over the course of a project.
Like, I think there's definitely value in prompting a dozen LLMs with a detailed description of a CMS you want built with 12 specific features, a unit testing suite and mobile support, and then timing them to see how long they take and grading their results. But that's not how most developers use an LLM in practice.
Until LLMs become reliable one-shot machines, the thing I care most about is how well they augment my problem solving process as I work through a problem with them. I have no earthly idea of how to measure that, and I'm highly skeptical of anyone who claims they do. In the absence of empirical evidence we have to fall back on intuition.
A friend recommended to me having a D&D style roleplay with some different engines, to see which you vibe with. I thought this sounded crazy but I took their advice.
I found this worked suprisingly well, I was certain 'claude' was best, while they like grok and someone else liked ChatGPT. Some AIs just end up fitting best with how you like to chat I think. I do definately also find claude best for coding with as well.
Because the answer to the question, “Does this model work for my use case?” is subjective.
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Because they are getting better. They're still far from perfect/AGI/ASI, but when was the last time you saw the word "delve"? So the models are clearly changing, the question is why doesn't the data show That they're actually better?
Thing is, everyone knows the benchmarks are being gamed. Exactly how is besides the point. In practice, anecdotally, Opus 4.5 is noticably better than 4, and GPT 5.2 has also noticably improved. So maybe the real question is why do you believe this data when it seems at odds with observations by humans in the field?
> Jeff Bezos: When the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.
https://articles.data.blog/2024/03/30/jeff-bezos-when-the-da...
Claude is still just like that once you’re deep enough in the valley of the conversation. not exactly that phrase but things like that’s the smoking gun or so. nothing has changed.
People desperately want 'the plateau' to be true because it means our jobs would be safe and we could call ourselves experts again. If the ground is keep moving then no one is truly an expert. There is just no enough time to achieve expertise when the paradigm shifts every six months.
I don't see a reason to think we're not going to hit a plateua sooner or later (and probably sooner). You can't scale your way out of hallucinations, and you can't keep raising tens of billions to train these things without investors wanting a return. Once you use up the entire internets worth of stack overflow responses and public github repositories you run into the fact that these things aren't good at doing things outside their training dataset.
Long story short, predicting perpetual growth is also a trap.
I agree with a lot of what you've said, but I completely disagree that LLM's are no longer sycophantic. GPT-5 is definitely still very sycophantic, 'You're absolutely right!' still happens, etc. It's true it happens far less in a pure coding context (Claude Code / Codex) but I suspect only because of the system prompts, and those tools are by far in the minority of LLM usage.
I think it's enlightening to open up ChatGPT on the web with no custom instructions and just send a regular request and see the way it responds.
The article is mostly reporting on the present. (Note the "yet" in the title.)
There's only one sentence where it handwaves about the future. I do think that line should have been cut.
I used to get made up APIs in functions, now I get them in modules. I used to get confidently incorrect assertions in files now I get them across codebases.
Hell, I get poorly defined APIs across files and still get them between functions. LLMs aren't good at writing well defined APIs at any level of the stack. They can attempt it at levels of the stack they couldn't a year ago, but they're still terrible at it unless the problem is so well known enough that they can regurgitate well reviewed code.
I still get made-up Python types all the time with Gemini. Really quite distracting when your codebase is massive and triggers a type error, and Gemini says
"To solve it you just need to use WrongType[ThisCannotBeUsedHere[Object]]"
and then I spend 15 minutes running in circles, because everything from there on is just a downward spiral, until I shut off the AI noise and just read the docs.
This is the right answer. Unless there is some equivalent of it on the open internet which their search engine can find you should not expect a good outcome.
"good outcome" is pretty subjective, I do get useful productivity gains from some LLM work, but the issues are the same as they always have been.
LLMs are bad at creating abstraction boundaries since inception. People have been calling it out since inception. (Heck, even I got a twitter post somewhere >12 months old calling that out, and I'm not exactly a leading light of the effort)
It is in no way size-related. The technology cannot create new concepts/abstractions, and so fails at abstraction. Reliably.
> The technology cannot create new concepts/abstractions, and so fails at abstraction. Reliably.
That statement is way too strong, as it implies either that humans cannot create new concepts/abstractions, or that magic exists.
I think both your statement and their statement are too strong. There is no reason to think LLMs can do everything a human can do, which seems to be your implication. On the other hand, the technology is still improving, so maybe it’ll get there.
My take is that:
1) LLMs cannot do everything humans can, but
2) There's no fundamental reason preventing some future technology to do everything humans can, and
3) LLMs are explicitly designed and trained to mimic human capabilities in fully general sense.
Point 2) is the "or else magic exists" bit; point 3) says you need a more specific reason to justify assertion that LLMs can't create new concepts/abstractions, given that they're trained in order to achieve just that.
Note: I read OP as saying they fundamentally can't and thus never will. If they meant just that the current breed can't, I'm not going to dispute it.
That’s a straw man argument if I’ve ever seen one. He was talking about technology. Not humans.
I believe his argument is that now that you've defined the limitation, it's a ceiling that will likely be cracked in the relatively near future.
Well, hallucinations have been identified as an issue since the inception of LLMs, so this doesn’t appear true.
Hallucinations are more or less a solved problem for me ever since I made a simple harness to have Codex/Claude check its work by using static typechecking.
But there aren’t very many domains where this type of verification is even possible.
Then you apply LLMs in domains where things can be checked
Indeed I expect to see a huge push into formally verified software just because sound mathematical proofs provide an excellent verifier to put into a LLM hardness. Just see how Aristotle has been successful at math, and it could be applied to coding too
Maybe Lean will become the new Python
"LLMs reliably fail at abstraction." "This limitation will go away soon." "Hallucinations haven't." "I found a workaround for that." "That doesn't work for most things." "Then don't use LLMs for most things."
I mean, Hallucinations are 95% better now than the first time I heard the term and experienced them in this context. To claim otherwise is simply shifting goalposts. No one is saying it's perfect or will be perfect, just that there has been steady progression and likely will continue to be for the foreseeable future.