> One user, who asked not to be identified, said it has been impossible to advance his project since the usage limits came into effect.
Vibe limit reached. Gotta start doing some thinking.
Right, but these companies are selling their products on the basis that you can offload a good amount of the thinking. And it seems a good deal of investment in AI is also based on this premise. I don't disagree with you, but it's sorta fucked that so much money has been pumped into this and that markets seem to still be okay with it all.
They're not selling them, they're still giving them away. Once the VC money runs out we'll see what the actual cost of this stuff is.
most inference runs at 40%+ margin
They'd be still at massive losses. You can spend your monthly subscription price in a day.
Is this like saying a gym runs at 40%+ margin because 80% of users don't really use it heavily or forget they even had a subscription? Would be interested to see the breakdown of that number.
Is that for per token costs or in these bundled subscriptions companies are selling?
For example, when playing around with claude code using a per token paid API key, it was going to cost ~$50aud a day with pretty general usage.
But their subscription plan is less than that per month. Them lowering their limits suggests that this wasn't proving profitable at the current limits.
Is that to the $20/mth plan or the 137?
Yeah, they are _saying_ that they're selling you a service but there will be surprises...
How long can AI be subsidized in the name of growth? They need to radically increase the price. If I replace a $150k yr employee should I pay $200 a month or $2,000 a month. $200 is too cheap.
> replace a $150k
Seems tangential? Price entirely depends on what consumers/businesses willing to pay and the degree of competition
Who would have though including a hard depedency on third part service with unclear long term availability would be a problem!
Paid compilers and remotely acessible mainframes all over again - people apparently never learn.
It’s only a hard dependency if you don’t know and never learn how to program.
For developers who read and understand the code being generated, the tool could go away and it would only slow you down, not block progress.
And even if you don’t, it really isn’t a hard dependency on a particular tool. There are multiple competing tools and models to choose from, so if you can’t make progress with one, switch to another. There isn’t much lock-in to any specific tool.
My experience has been that Claude can layout a lot of things in minutes that would take me hours if not days. Often I can dictate the precise logic and then claude get's most of the way there, with a little prompting claude can usually get even further. The amount of work I can get done is much more substantial than it used to be.
I think there is a lot of reticence to adopt AI for coding but I'm seeing it as a step change for coding the way powerful calculators/workstation computers were for traditional engineering disciplines. The volume of work they were limited to using a slide rule was much lower than now with a computer.
> Paid compilers.
I don't think this one is a good comparison.
Once you had the binary, the compiler worked forever[1]
The issue with them was around long term support for bugs and upgrade path as the language evolved.
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[1] as long you had a machine capable of running/emulating the instruction set for the binary.
Hm, I am assuming that paid compilers were largely gone before the whole "must have this dongle attached to computer" industry? Because for software that uses those, "I paid for it" absolutely does not guarantee "I can still run it". The only reason it's not more of a problem is the planned obsolescence that means forced to upgrade sooner or later (but, unlike purely subscription-based services, you have some control over how frequently you pay).
Sadly, paid compilers still exist, and paid compilers requiring a licensing dongle still exist. The embedded development world is filled with staggering amounts of user hostility.
My understanding is that much of the established embedded world has moved to any one flavour of GCC or (more commonly) Clang, just because maintaining a proprietary optimising compiler is too much effort than just modifying (and eventually contributing to) Clang.
> My understanding is that much of the established embedded world has moved to any one flavour of GCC or (more commonly) Clang
Clang is not being professionally used commonly in the embedded space.
Everyone that successfully avoided social media for the last decade escaped with their mental health. Everyone that carefully moderates their ai intake (e.g don’t depend on Claude Code) will also escape with their skills over the next decade, others will become AI fiends, just the like social media fiends. Just knowing tech like the internet and ai can fuck your whole brain up is enough to be ahead of the curve. If you didn’t learn the lesson from the uptake of video games, cellphones, tv, streaming (the list is endless), then you’re not paying attention.
The destruction of spelling didn’t feel like doomsday to us. In fact, I think most people treated the utter annihilation of that skill as a joke. “No one knows how to spell anymore” - haha, funny, isn’t technology cute? Not really. We’ve gone up an order of magnitude, and not paying attention to how programming is on the chopping block is going to screw a lot of people out of that skill.
Very thoughtful comment, let me try to capture it more clearly.
Zuckerberg recently said that those not using AI glasses will be cognitively disadvantaged in the future.
Imagine an AI-native from the future and one of the fancy espresso coffee machines that we have today. They will be able to know right away how to operate them from their AI assistants, but they won't be able to figure out how they work on their own.
That's the future that Zuckerberg wants. Naturally, fancy IT offices will likely be gone. The AI-native would have bought the coffee machine for nostalgia effect for a large sum, trying to combat existential dread and feeling of failure which are fueled by their behavior being even more directly coerced into consumption.
curious, maybe one could go and spin up a study for using claculators instead of calculating manually and how it can lead to less x type of thinking and affect our abiltiy but maybe even if that is true(i am not sure maybe it is just in the domains we dont feel like we need to care much or etc) would people quitting clacutors a good thing for getting things done in the world ?
curious, maybe one could go and spin up a study for using claculators instead of calculating manually and how it can lead to less x type of thinking and affect our abiltiy but maybe even if that is true(i am not sure maybe it is just in the domains we dont feel like we need to care much or etc) would people quitting clacutors a good thing for producing value in the world by the will of God?
More than some thinking. They’ll probably need to think hardest or even ultrathink to keep the project moving forward.
Hmmm, I am 99% sure the users are not vibe coders who can't code, those are on tools like lovable, not messing with terminal tools.
Came to comment on the same quote.
I'm surprised, but know I shouldn't be, that we're at this point already.
First one was free
I would be a little disappointed if that wasn't the case, after all we have been there quite a while in regards to the art models.
He did not pass the vibe check.
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I honestly feel sorry for these vibe coders. I'm loving AI in a similar way that I loved google or IDE magic. This seems like a far worst version of those developers that tried to build an entire app with Eclipse or Visual Studio GUI drag and drop from the late 90s
Hundreds of billions of dollars have changed hands through shitty drag-and-drop UIs, wordpress ecommerce plugins, and dreamweaver sites, lets not forget the code is there to serve a business purpose at the end of the day. Code quality is an implementation detail that may matter less over time as rewrites get easier. I love me some beatiful hand-written clean code, but clean code is not the true goal.
> clean code is not the true goal
Its not, but it does matter. LLMs, being next word guessers, perform differently with different inputs. Its not hard to imagine a feedback loop of bad code generating worse code and good code generating more good code.
My ability to get good responses from LLMs has been tied to me writing better code, docstrings, and using autoformatters.
I don't consider drag-and-drop UIs anywhere close to wordpress plugins. I'm not talking about writing bad code, I'm talking about being able to understand what you are creating.
Why isn't anyone talking about the bevvy of drag-and-drop no colder solutions that have already been in the market? Surely the LLMs are competing with those tools, right?
People trash LLM code as if most consumer software isn't buggy piles of half assed code.
Thats a really good comparison. Dreamweaver would be another one. You just don’t own the tool now, so it puts you at even more risk.