There's a deeper educational problem that's been decades in the making which is that students are trained to see school and work as a series of never ending goals to achieve. The ultimate one is to 'get a job'. Well, now nobody can really even say what jobs will be available in 5 to 10 years with high confidence. Except maybe the trades – and we mostly cut those programs out of schools a long time ago.
If college students are using AI to breeze through their work rather than doing the reading themselves, developing grit – I don't see how we can blame them rather than ourselves for the educational and career system we've created. This problem didn't happen overnight, and it's not just AI.
Just like AI seems like it's being used as a convenient scapegoat for the layoffs and trimming following the end of ZIRP, now we see it also being used to blame for the failures of our modern education system.
Mostly which are that our system only rewards one thing in education: the grade. Not understanding, knowledge, intelligence, but instead a single number that is more easily gamified than anything. And this single number (your GPA) is the single most important thing for every level from middle school to college where it will unironically determine your entire (academic/academic-adjacent) future.
IN RESPONSE TO: Just like AI seems like it's being used as a convenient scapegoat for the layoffs and trimming following the end of ZIRP
there are like 4 factors besides ZIRP i've witnessed as a hiring manager
- Layoff or dont hire locals in favor of H1b/H4
- Layoff or dont hire locals in favor of Nearshore and Offshore
- Section 174 Tax code on software: https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/section-174/
- More productivity via LLMs, Code Assist
TFTFY... our system only rewards one thing in employment: the metric. Not understanding, knowledge, intelligence, but instead a single number that is more easily gamified than anything. And this single number (your metric value) is the single most important thing for every level from junior to principal where it will unironically determine your entire future.
Our modern education system in the US is broken, but acting as if AI is a scapegoat is comical.
Capitalism is what has destroyed higher education in this country. The concept of going to school to get a job isn’t a failure of education but of economics.
AI is just another capitalist tool made to not only extract wealth out of you but something that they want you to rely on more and more so they can charge you even more down the road.
Before college was a means to get a job, it was status signalling for the upper class by showing they could spend 4 years not working and learning things with no economic value that few could afford. There was never a time when a large portion of society went to school past 18 for any reason other than economic or status gain, and why should they?
>and why should they?
Because modern life is radically more complicated than humans can naturally deal with.
Your average peasant for millenia didn't need to understand Information security to avoid getting phished, didn't need to understand compounding interest for things like loans and saving for retirement (they'd just have kids and pray enough of them survive), didn't need to have some kind of mental model for the hordes of algorithms deployed against us for the express purpose of taking all of our available attention (a resource that people before a couple decades ago had so much excess of that boredom was a serious concern) for the express purpose of selling it to people who want to extract any dollar you may have access to, did not need to understand spreadsheets(!), etc etc etc etc
Like, being productive in modern society is complicated. That's what education is for.
You don't have to understand infosec to not get phished. And education doesn't do a damn thing to help you resist those algorithms.
Philosophy has proven invaluable in identifying the sophistry behind every recent progressive movement.
lol? really? Huh that’s crazy, almost like you’re injecting your batshit crazy political beliefs and saying it’s the fault of “progressives”
Economic OR status gain is putting a lot of work on the or.
We've put into place a context for intellectual achievement at scale. Why shouldn't status be apportioned to someone who is recognized by a panel of peers and teachers to have useful insight into their field?
> Why shouldn't status be apportioned to someone who is recognized by a panel of peers and teachers to have useful insight into their field
Because many "fields" in colleges are not useful.
Because a college degree isn't an intellectual achievement. It's 4 years of school when you've already done 13. I went to one of those schools where people go "oh, you went to $SCHOOL" when they find out, and I always want to roll my eyes because I didn't do shit to get that degree.
Learning stuff is cool?
I think learning stuff and making art just for the hell of it is going to become a lot more accepted as society continues on and more and more peoples' jobs get automated away. Obviously that's a huge simplification of a much more complex situation, but in general I think the best future is one where people are free to pursue interests without regard for those interests ability to pay for their food and housing.
UBI: the dream!
Decoupling working from living: means only intrinsically valuable things get worked on. No more working a 9-5 at a scam call center or figuring out how to make people click on ads. There is ONLY BENEFIT (to everyone) from giving labor such leverage.
Not every job needs to or should even exist: everyone having a job isn't utopia. Utopia is being free to choose what you work on. This directs market value for labor to go up. Work that needs to get done will be aligned with financial incentives (farmers, janitors, repair industries would soar to new heights).
UBI is a necessary and great idea: A bottom floor to capitalism means we all can stand up and lift this sinking ship.
- [deleted]
Even the Soviet Union made people go to school, and getting a degree was a route to higher status.
(there have been a few Communist revolutions against the concept of "university", for various political reasons, but China rebuilt theirs after the purges and Cambodia is a sad historical footnote)
IN RESPONSE TO Even the Soviet Union made people go to school, and getting a degree was a route to higher status.
Also people did that to avoid Dedovshchina
At least in the Soviet Union, they were free...
In Soviet Union, university education free but came at cost of living in Soviet Union
- Yakov Smirnoff, probably
There is nothing wrong with going to school to obtain knowledge and skills to secure a job.
The problem with the modern educational system is that it isnt very efficient at this task. Instead, most of the value relies on the screening that took place before the students even entered the institution, not the knowledge obtained while there.
Yep, this is a huge problem. I've long argued that we need value add metrics for colleges, and it probably won't be a single number, but rather a set of values depending on input values, e.g., some schools may deliver a lot of value for kids with 1550 SATs, but other schools may do better for kids with 1200.
Today we simply use college as a proxy for intelligence, so people just like to go to the highest rated college they can to be viewed as intelligent. What happens in the four years at the college is secondary.
> Today we simply use college as a proxy for intelligence, so people just like to go to the highest rated college they can to be viewed as intelligent.
Hmmm… I would say college is a proxy for social currency, of which intelligence is one type. In most cases, intelligence is the least valuable (imho).
> There is nothing wrong with going to school to obtain knowledge and skills to secure a job.
That can't be the only goal. We also need to transmit culture, values, and teach them to become citizens.
Teach them "values" as determined by a central governing authority?
Yes, within a reason. Not in an authoritarian or dismissive manner. But the ideals of our western liberal societies.
What happens if that centeal authority becoms subverted (as many people here would argue is the case right now)?
Doesnt that single point of failure indicate a weakness?
Values are your culture. The Nazis were elected and supported (at least initially) so you are right some what, but the answer is multiple countries.
But a country without a culture and without shared values is a sled being pulled by dogs in different directions and not a real team (as many people would argue has been the case for quite some time).
You need common values to work together to achieve goals. That's what a country is, people working together. When you don't, you just become tenants with passports.
you dont need 4-10 years of post-secondary school at 100k/yr to do that.
nor do our current institutions do a good job of what you describe.
> Well, now nobody can really even say what jobs will be available in 5 to 10 years with high confidence.
I am very sure that those jobs that have been existing for a long time will continue existing for a long time (and no: even if some disruption occurs, these jobs won't suddenly disappear, but will rather phased out slowly; you thus have sufficient time to make a decent plan for you).
In other words: in my opinion one can predict rather well many jobs that will be available in 5 to 10 years.
The "inconvenient" truth rather is that many high-paying jobs in the new economy sector don't satisfy this criterion of "existing for a long time". So by this criterion you might miss out some hard to predict high-earning opportunities. Thus, if you are the kind of person who tends to easily become envious if your friends suddenly experience a windfall, such a job perhaps won't make you happy.
Trades would collapse if even 10% of the population switched to them. What does no one get about this?
Yeah, I feel like kids are encouraged to move not to jobs that will be profitable to them (ie the children) but that the moneyed want to pay less for, because the number of people being swayed would collapse any market.
It's like a boat captain telling all his passengers to rush to one side of the boat. Any single side will tip the boat over.
Trades tend to do a good job of preventing people from switching in due to apprenticeship systems. Depends on your jurisdiction, but you probably can't just hang out a sign saying "plumber".
Related - there needs to be individuals and businesses that want/need and can afford upgrades and repairs. If office workers are getting replaced with AI we don't need to build and maintain offices and the ecosystems that support them (see also WFH/Covid) and those workers won't have income to pay for plumbers, electricians, roofers, etc. for their personal property. A worst case scenario AI workforce revolution would attack trades from both supply and demand.
This is a good point and also why are people so certain that superhuman capable robots aren't right around the corner.
It's just viral memes. Most people are inferior to the average LLM in reasoning and repeat phrases wholesale without comprehension of what it means. Few, if any, have even approached understanding what they are saying. Among those, fewer still have validated their assumptions.
Many years ago we had to deploy an HFT trading strategy on a specific hardware platform because that was the one that was (in this field) closest in network topology to the exchange. I just read the released docs for the platform, and watched a couple of videos where they hinted at certain architectural decisions and then you could work something out from there. Latency was reliable and our strats made money.
But this was public information and we were actually late to it. It had been released for 3 years at the time. And many people I talked to had told me that what they had was as good as it gets. But they were each just repeating what the other guy said.
Many of the things you see on Hacker News are just that: it's deterministic parrotry.
I agree but the signal noise ratio is slightly better here. But it’s fine down hill over the decade.
But I wonder if lower labor costs would change the repair vs replace calculus by a lot.
Well in sweden it's forbidden to fix anything electrical on your own. You're allowed to change your lamps and little else.
Is it so? Is it true for other work also? Genuinely asking.
There is a concept called regulated professions. The US equivalent would likely be accredited or certified. Typically, anything in health, security, and education, but also things like accounting or commercial diving. EU has Directive 2005/36/EC that specify how this kind of laws may operate in EU.
> What does no one get about this?
Its all idiotic romanticisation. Thats why all the out-of-their-ass anecdotes involve someone who's more of an entrepreneur than a tradesmen as well.
Theres some bizzare analog of the noble savage myth, but applied to blue collar work.
I’m convinced plumbing would pay better than programming in certain neighborhoods right now now.
Plumbers never realized that they should be selling service plans and leasing toilets to people.
Software's golden goose is not letting people own things.
The people who lease toilets to people are landlords, as part of leasing the rest of the building or unit.
I'm pretty sure plumbers do sell service plans to businesses. It's just that households don't really need regular work.
Service for what? I'm in my 40s and now that I think about it, I've never had to call a plumber in my entire life. The only time I can think of is my parents calling one when they got a new dishwasher 25 years ago.
I've had the plumber out twice this year. Probably depends on how handy you are with plumbing issues. Me not so much.
That's not new though. My colleague does IT for a few years then works as a construction worker for a few years, depending on the market. He's ready for anything :-)
> I don't see how we can blame them rather than ourselves for the educational and career system we've created
I dont know man, you do it every time.
Nobody ever could say with confidence what jobs will pe available. those who know the basics and flexible can find something.
> those who know the basics and flexible can find something.
I'm not so sure about that: I have a feeling that at least the current trend in quite some jobs is that they are looking for two kinds of people:
1. beginners who know the basics and are cheap
2. deep experts; these are paid well
What is in-between gets more and more hollowed out.
Thus the people who follow your advice will mostly stay in the "cheap" pool - I wouldn't consider this to be desirable.
> Thus the people who follow your advice will mostly stay in the "cheap" pool - I wouldn't consider this to be desirable.
Cheap... but employed. Expertise is only valuable if its valued. That means you not only need to be an expert in the thing, but also the market for the thing, and that's a lot to ask.
You can move between groups. If your expertise turns out not needed get a cheap job while learning something else.
The only way to develop deep expertise is to do it as your job.
There exist in my opinion rather few jobs where you will develop a deep expertise in some area.
I got my job/career precisely because I developed deep expertise on my own time. So no, that is not the only way to develop that expertise.
For most people, if your expertise isn't guided by boards of already experienced people then it's probably not really worth it. Most people are shockingly bad at learning on their own. They're gonna go home and watch TV, go to the gym, and spend time with their loved ones.
Look, I would not want a doctor to perform my surgery who did not do a residency. I don't care if they carved up 1,000 cadavers in their free time. I want somebody where the board of their specialty has said "yup, this guys good". I'm not gonna spend the time to try to trust the doctor, because that's really really hard. I'm not a doctor, I don't know shit. I have to rely on institutions of trust to do that work for me.
And that's really what universities are at their core - institutions of trust. When you get a degree, there's trust you understand the material to an appropriate degree. When you pass a residency, there's trust you understand the material to an appropriate degree. If we lose that trust, such as by letting students cheat by AI, that is a big problem.
Could I hire someone who says they're an expert, with no degree, and just give them a leetcode problem? Sure. But if I hire someone with a degree, I have a much greater level of certainty they can actually code. Same goes for work experience.
Why depend on a degree or a leetcode problem when neither is a good proxy for ability to code? Ask to see code that they've made public somewhere, Offer a take home exercise, Hire them on contract to hire.
There are so many better options than leetcode or degree.
I guess it depends on what you consider deep expertise- I assumed a 10000 hours/PhD level of expertise, which would be hard to achieve in a couple years while working.
This is at odds with professional specialisms which take years to learn.
I don't think it's likely that AI will obliterate the job category of "lawyer", but that's what its boosters are claiming, and people need to make a car to house sized investment at age 18 depending on how true that is.
I think the profession of "laywer" may come to an end sooner rather than later for many, unless they are able to get legislators to ban AI from practicing law. A lot of lawyering is writing in a particular legal vocabulary and style, and forming arguments based on precident, things that an LLM AI should be able to get very good at.
It won't be long before an impoverished criminal defendant will be able to chose between an AI that can spend practically unlimited time on his case and have perfect recall of any precident that might be relevant, or an overworked public defender who has 2 hours a week to spare in his schedule.
Go read lawyers complaining on reddit about pro se litigants using AI. They hallucinate precedents like APIs or get confused about what is supported.
If you think SWEs that build the same CRUD apps every day are vulnerable but SWEs that do "real work" aren't, apply that logic to lawyers.
Except lawyers don't have an automated compiler to check for fabricated precedents as case law databases are monopolized by one company.
It costs money but KeyCite is real.
it always has been. You make what looks like a good bet and if you are wrong adjust-
How this works for most people in reality is "if you are wrong, you're screwed"
Most people do not have the ability to adjust like that, for one reason or another
And even if you do, it still means your life is likely to hit an extremely rough patch while your adjusting catches up to where you were before
IN RESPONSE TO: There's a deeper educational problem that's been decades in the making which is that students are trained to see school and work as a series of never ending goals to achieve. The ultimate one is to 'get a job'.
This one is really bad. I have waves of local grads begging for unpaid internships or work now. They all were AP students, good GPAs, good schools, "learned to code", took on 200k of college debt -- only to find the promised job is just not frigging there at the end of the line. Meanwhile, they are told there is a "massive shortage of coders" and see overseas workers hired into those same jobs. How do younger people trust the system anymore? Further, in light of this, why would any steel-worker (metaphorically speaking) want to retrain and learn to code if even the geeks learning to code face dismal outcomes?
This is rooted in the idea that a person should need permission to work. The reason we do this is because our capitalist society is structured around competition instead of collaboration. Because all work must be framed as a competition, the only way collaboration is allowed is by explicitly joining a team.
This rule is made explicit with copyright: derivative work is, by default, illegal. The only way that derivative work is allowed to be made is after making a contract with the rightsholder.
This system can only be enforced with incompatibility. You can't actually stop someone from making derivative work unless your help is actually required. The most familiar instance of this requirement is software: it's simply not pragmatic for someone to extend your code, when they only have access to a compiled binary. Software work can only be extended from a shared context: what you write must be compatible with what is written. That's generally unfeasible when what is written is a compile-time optimized binary executable.
Incompatibility is not a perfect barrier. It's possible to decompile software. It's possible to edit text, images, video, audio, etc. Copyright depends on incompatibility, and LLMs are simply the newest, most compelling way to call that bluff.
Most students see education as a video game - the goal is to score as many points as possible in a framework controlled by some apparently arbitrary rules. That educators fail to distinguish school from video games is mostly the fault of educators. And video games are more fun.