Notes on Argentina

You have to consider why Milei was elected in the first place - a dramatic break from typical Peronist politics with a historic 55% of the vote.

The picture in Argentina was not rosy before Milei took office, it was a country on the verge of hyperinflationary collapse, with a population declining through emigration, a largely informal economy in decline, and people struggling to keep up with dramatic inflation.

I don’t know of another case where hyperinflation was arrested without introducing a new currency. Milei has apparently done it by simply cutting spending, which naturally comes with some pain as the subsidies and government employment are curtailed, but a sound currency sets the stage for distributed investment, lending, entrepreneurship and growth.

More recent policy changes have focused on opening up the country to exports and imports, which will be key to bringing about prosperity through growth in industry, and bringing prices into line with international norms. https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/javier-milei-d...

He said he spoke with about 100 local people, and that was their general consensus.

They're more likely to understand how they're better off than a tourist, or someone reading what a tourist wrote.

I’d love to hear what people are reading to actually understand this. At this point I will openly admit that I do not know if what’s happening in Argentina is good or even on purpose. I sense that everything I read is at best motivated reasoning and at worst propaganda, and I’m not skilled enough to determine what is correct and what is not.

Do you know the difference between a curve and its derivative?

He did say it would get worse before it got better

seems like someone dont take preliminary on economic class before

Surprisingly, no. Milei's party does not have majority in the Congress, he does not have much power, and the best example is his omnibus bill [1]. Initially Milei's party attempted to pass a massive 300-page reform, consisting primarily of deregulations and paving the road for a more free-market government model. The reform was debated for almost 6 months, and the accepted version was about a 3rd of the original one.

The president has power to make only small changes in Argentina, but the previous system was so flawled that any minor change resulted in noticeable changes to the general economy.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Bases_and_Starting_Poin...

> how quickly Milei was able to make these changes.

Milei's speech at Davos 2025: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/davos-2025-special-a...

The same powers that allow Milei to make rapid changes are the ones that allowed decades of his predecessors to run the country into the ground.

Interesting that we have the same saying in Brazil. Latin America countries are very similar indeed

That’s oversimplifying a complex issue, some of his policies will work and some will fail, and that fact says nothing about underlying ideologies that drive his behavior.

All of the improvements are being hand-waved away by those desperate to see Milei fail, because success would jeopardize their worldview. It's not to see it's smooth sailing, but I'm optimistic based varied sources.

Several sources report more recent data showing a drop to 37-39%.

The picture in Argentina was not rosy before Milei took office, it was a country on the verge of hyperinflationary collapse. Given that starting position, IMO it’s remarkable how quickly things have turned around.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say... https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870100943418630363?s=46

The poverty rate above 50% of the population is something that happens when a country goes over several corrupt governments that steal everything the people have and put it in the hands of a handful of people that are always prepared to flee.

All those people failing to notice Argentina was poor before Milei got the presidency either have no idea what they are talking about or are malicious.

Now, yes, about worsening public services; Milei did the basic thing so the country can actually do something, the real test for his government is how he fixes those problems. (From the shit he talks, I would be in he not fixing anything, but if he actually acted like he talks he wouldn't have got inflation under control and would probably be already out of the presidency by now.)

Inflation is down and the economy is doing better, but what's the point when poverty rates just skyrocketed to over 50% of the population [1]? Will it "trickle down", like it never did anywhere?

This seems not true. The poor in countries with high gdp per capita are much better off than in countries with low gdp per capita. They are also better off than the poor were in prior times when those countries had lower gdp per capita. So some kind of trickling down must have happened.

It might be more convenient for your sense of moral indignation if it were otherwise but facts are facts.

I don't know if they have inflation under control if, like TFA says, the locals tell him they drive to Chile to buy tires for less than half the price.

do you want cheap prices and empty shelves or high prices and non-empty shelves?

It's silly to claim that austerity is dangerous. Dangerous compared to what? Argentina had reached the logical end state of socialism and literally run out of other people's money to spend. There was no more room to raise taxes or borrow so austerity was the only remaining choice.

Poverty statistics are meaningless. The numbers under previous administrations were heavily manipulated and don't provide a solid basis for comparison.

It's all about what the alternative is. And the alternative is very bad.

I'm not saying this is a good rationalization, but it is a fairly rational one, as those things go.

No one in America really has the right to speak about a society at 200% inflation.

People couldn't even deal with 9% here.

There is no point in saving money at all with 200% inflation.

It is completely alien concept and unimaginable to anyone living in the US.

At some point they had to do something drastic.

People have a hard time understanding the nuances and the context. Because he is somewhat crazy, he is able to do things a normal politician wouldn't do. Clearly, eliminating corruption and waste is a good thing. He was also able to end the endless street protests. He was also the only option that was expected to make radical changes. On the other hand, the guy is pretty crazy, lacks empathy, is authoritarian, hates dissent, lies a lot, and so on. He is in love with Israel and Trump in an emotional way. Everything he doesn't like is extreme left, etc. My hope is that a new force will emerge that can continue fighting corruption, establish rule of law, create a vibrant market economy in a democratic way. It will be a long journey.

What do you know about the guy?