Collection: More Doctors Smoke Camels

tobacco.stanford.edu

96 points

t0bia_s

4 days ago


147 comments

aprilthird2021 2 days ago

> In an attempt to substantiate the “More Doctors” claim, R.J. Reynolds paid for surveys to be conducted during medical conventions using two survey methods: Doctors were gifted free packs of Camel cigarettes at tobacco company booths and them upon exiting the exhibit hall, were then immediately asked to indicate their favorite brand or were asked which cigarette they carried in their pocket.

It was a different time and people genuinely did not know the harms of smoking like we do now, but this would be wrong to a caveman from 10000 BC

  • adamc 2 days ago

    The ethical standards of advertising are obviously very, very low.

    • lnxg33k1 2 days ago

      Much better now, to make you feel helpless, depressed, lacking just to keep you consuming anything

      Ethical standards are exactly the same, it’s regulation that is very different, let’s not give credit to corporations that they absolutely not deserve

  • einpoklum 2 days ago

    > It was a different time

    Not that different.

    > and people genuinely did not know the harms of smoking like we do now

    The tobacco companies knew very well. IIRC, the medical community kinda-sorta knew and kinda-sorta suppressed the knowledge.

  • ChrisMarshallNY 2 days ago

    I remember, in the 1980s, the American Heart Association never listed tobacco as a contributor to heart disease. I'm pretty sure that the tobacco industry figured highly, in their funding sources.

    These days, they are very adamant that tobacco is a big factor.

    Also, I believe that a lot of stress research (the one that created the "Type A personality") was funded by the tobacco industry.

  • marcus0x62 2 days ago

    > It was a different time and people genuinely did not know the harms of smoking like we do now

    My grandmother (born in 1928, started smoking at 13) said that, growing up, people casually referred to cigarettes as "cancer sticks".

  • jareds 2 days ago

    I can't get to worked up about the way the surveys were conducted since this was advertising. If R.J. Reynolds were trying to publish peer reviewed papers based on there survey results and excluded the fact that the doctors were given free cigarettes that would be more of an issue. I'm sure much worse stuff was done in an effort to hide the health effects of smoking but it's not something I have familiarity with.

thedailymail 2 days ago

I never noticed this until scrolling through this image gallery, but the design of these ads consistently and prominently highlights the first letters of "More Doctors," which was almost certainly intended to visually reinforce the M.D. association.

  • musicale a day ago

    Best for your Tumor zone!

aithrowawaycomm 2 days ago

It is interesting that these ads are particularly targeted at women - maybe I am looking too much in to it, but I would guess there was (is) a big gender disparity with tobacco health concerns. These ads are quite different from the Marlboro Man - "tough cigarettes for tough men."

  • janalsncm 2 days ago

    One potential reason might be because these ads were in women’s magazines? I’m sure they advertised in men’s magazines as well. It would be interesting to compare.

    • magneticnorth 2 days ago

      My understanding of this Stanford research group collection is that it is all the ads (or all they are able to find) - I don't think they were only collecting ads from women's magazines.

      If this ad campaign was mostly run in women's magazines, that supports the same hypothesis - presumably camel was running a different message to advertise toward men.

      But I'm not actually able to tell from the pictures which magazine the ad ran in - am I missing that somewhere?

      • whycome 2 days ago

        Yeah the magazine name (and target) would be essential context that should be preserved along with the images themselves.

  • aliher1911 2 days ago

    You may want to search "Torches of Freedom" and go down that rabbit hole.

    • ImHereToVote 2 days ago

      The only reason you don't see "Torches of Freedom" now is because PR has become infinitely more sophisticated. To the extent that you create your own Torches of Freedom by your own volition.

      • bn-l 2 days ago

        Great point. I had a conversation with my sister on this topic recently. Maybe women are realising.

  • dtgriscom 2 days ago

    I think it's because so many men smoked that marketing to women was a growth opportunity.

  • carlosjobim 2 days ago

    Advertisements in general are usually targeted to women, still today. They spend more and make the spending decisions if they have a husband.

Waterluvian 2 days ago

Ads back then had so much copy. What’s with that? Was it easy to command attention for that long because there wasn’t much else to do? No smart phone in the waiting room to compete with?

  • vel0city 2 days ago

    I see magazines with multi-page ads which read exactly like articles but have additional labeling that they're explicitly ads written by the company instead of ads written by the writers of the magazine. Often with slightly different styling.

    This example magazine has a number of single page ads with a good bit of copy in them. I'm trying to find an example magazine with those multi-page ads at the moment though.

    https://flickread.com/edition/html/676148065c1ba#1

  • jdietrich 2 days ago

    The people who are actually interested in your product will generally want lots of information. Prior to the internet, how did they actually get that information? Overwhelmingly, through print advertising. If people who have no interest in your product see the headline and turn the page before getting to the body copy, that's no real loss; if people who are interested in your product have questions that aren't answered by the copy, that is potentially a very real loss.

    • f33d5173 2 days ago

      Usually the copy is entirely devoid of "information" per se. It's a series of nice sounding but totally vacuous statements.

  • warner25 2 days ago

    I suspect that there was little data to analyze how much attention the ads were commanding back then.

    I often think about how so many things now have been optimized (mostly for profit) to the extreme by data-driven processes, with big corporate marketing certainly being one of them.

    Up until two or three decades ago, I suspect that it was all based on tradition and the "gut feel" of out-of-touch and arrogant executives talking to each other over drinks (thinking of scenes from Mad Men here).

    • sethammons 2 days ago

      I took my marketing classes for my business degree in the early 2000s. Digital marketing was not addressed. The advice at the time was to get to six "impressions," six encounters with your brand before most people would start to recognize the brand. And it was very much admitted that you don't get to measure this and you must correlate sales trends with marketing trends. Very much "gut feel" in comparison of digital tracking. I'm still not convinced the tracking makes that big of a difference but obviously the market disagrees with me.

      • bluGill 2 days ago

        Digital tracking can be helpful as a proxy, but what matters - and what big brands still measure - is how marketing correlates to sales. Statistics can figure out a lot of this, though the data is noisy.

  • pier25 2 days ago

    No website to check the details of a product either

  • B1FF_PSUVM 2 days ago

    > No smart phone in the waiting room to compete with?

    Yes. Sometimes it was a deliberate tactic - mostly adverts would go for the 'just an evocative picture', but a few would go the 'wall of text' route. My memory pops up the name Alan Sugar for an example of those - really dense walls ...

  • carlosjobim 2 days ago

    People with self respect will find it insulting if an advertisement doesn't try to convince them with copy. In the past, advertisers wanted to be careful to not insult their prospective clients. Modern ads usually have an undertone of "we despise you" towards their prospective clients. I guess they figured out that it's better spent dollars to try to reach people without self respect.

  • datavirtue 2 days ago

    There would have been a stack of these magazines in every home and each page would have been picked over several times.

    When I was a child magazines were still very popular and I would not rest until every last millimeter of each one was examined in detail multiple times.

freedomben 2 days ago

I was recently listening to old Abbott & Costello radio shows from 1946 and they were also heavily sponsored by Camel and frequently played an audio ad of "more doctors smoke camels." I got quite a kick out of it! They really ran hard with that message.

  • whycome 2 days ago

    Today, the message is brought to you by fanduel and bet365

    • austinprete 2 days ago

      Hmm, which one do more doctors use?

mttpgn 2 days ago

An excerpt from _How to Lie with Statistics_ by Darrell Huff (1954):

> Take this one: "27 percent of a large sample of eminent physicians smoke Throaties--more than any other brand." The figure itself may be phony, of course, in any of several ways, but that really doesn't make any difference. The only answer to a figure so irrelevant is "So what?" With all proper respect toward the medical profession, do doctors know any more about tobacco brands than you do? Do they have any inside information that permits them to choose the least harmful among cigarettes? Of course they don't, and your doctor would be the first to say so. Yet that "27 percent" somehow manages to sound as if it meant something.

That book specifies many other examples (from this time period in America) of misleading claims that sound statistically significant upon an uncritical, cursory reading.

  • croemer 2 days ago

    I think you don't mean "statistically significant" here, but something like "relevant" instead. Something can be statistically significant and entirely irrelevant if the effect size is too small.

hackeraccount 2 days ago

The interesting thing to me is the argument that the ad was confronting. That is that cigarettes are harmful one way or the other - which despite there being at the time almost zero evidence for apparently enough people thought that there was a need to cloak a particular brand with the association to doctors (who would presumably be smoking the "healthiest" cigarette).

More generally I'm all for evidence showing what's healthy - eat some fruit and vegetables occasionally, get some exercise, don't smoke, don't drink - but I don't think any of these things are mysterious. Generally people have a good handle on what's good and what's bad for them. Now, they don't always do it but that's less to do with evidence then people seem to commonly suppose.

  • lolinder 2 days ago

    > despite there being at the time almost zero evidence for

    This isn't true—people had been connecting the dots for a few decades by the time these ads were running [0], and right around the start of the run (1940) was when strong evidence was starting to get published:

    > Scholars started noting the parallel rise in cigarette consumption and lung cancer, and by the 1930s had begun to investigate this relationship using the methods of case-control epidemiology. Franz Hermann Müller at Cologne Hospital in 1939 published the first such study, comparing 86 lung cancer ‘cases’ and a similar number of cancer-free controls. Müller was able to show that people with lung cancer were far more likely than non-cancer controls to have smoked, a fact confirmed by Eberhard Schairer and Eric Schöniger at the University of Jena in an even more ambitious study from 1943. These German results were subsequently verified and amplified by UK and American scholars: in 1950 alone, five separate epidemiological studies were published, including papers by Ernst Wynder and Evarts Graham in the USA and Richard Doll and A Bradford Hill in England. All confirmed this growing suspicion, that smokers of cigarettes were far more likely to contract lung cancer than non-smokers.

    So it's less a case of people intuiting what was bad for them and more a case of the industry trying (and for a few decades succeeding) to get ahead of a growing scientific consensus by advertising it into irrelevance.

    [0] https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/21/2/87

    • forgetfreeman 2 days ago

      Point of Order: tobacco smoke was suspected of being harmful a couple centuries before the scientific method started to catch up to the suspicion. King James I famously penned a treatise against tobacco use in 1604 and slapped some eyewatering taxes on it's importation.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Counterblaste_to_Tobacco

      • lolinder 2 days ago

        That's true—lung cancer specifically was a concern that was growing at the time, which is almost certainly the impetus for this ad campaign—but you're right that it was strongly questioned for a long time before that.

  • 331c8c71 2 days ago

    > Generally people have a good handle on what's good and what's bad for them

    Hard disagree, the cultural norms play a huge role and the changes are slow. I'm like 95% sure the unabated addiction to social media so prevalent nowadays will be regarded similarly to how smoking and drinking is seen now.

    We should be really extrapolating what we know about tobacco now and the things they claimed in the past towards currently relevant issues e.g. "Facebook papers"-type materials.

    • ANewFormation 2 days ago

      Most people it seems so know social media is bad for them. But people knowingly use many things that are bad for themselves.

      • musicale a day ago

        Social media, hyper-palatable ultra-processed "foods" (see RJR Nabisco), etc.

  • ANewFormation 2 days ago

    I don't understand why you think there would have been 0 evidence. The countless respiratory illnesses associated with smoking are readily obvious by taking even a small sample of longterm smokers - a decent chunk of them will sound like smokers, be occasionally hacking up a lung, and so on.

    People obviously knew smoking was unhealthy, but chose to do so anyhow. And companies naturally worked to trt to strengthen that cognitive dissonance. Same thing today, but it's slightly more subtle. For instance in a typical Coke ad you'll generally see people that look nothing like regular Coke drinkers - health, fitness, and good body weights abounds.

    Ronaldo's Coke/water moment gave me a vast amount of respect for him - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x2ZLS1V3iMw&pp=ygUbUm9uYWxkbyd... It's how the sort of people Coke gets to pose with their product actually feel about it.

ajayvk 2 days ago

The "Costlier Tobaccos" tag line looks strange now. Products which want to show sophistication no longer promote the fact that they are more expensive.

  • lIl-IIIl 2 days ago

    I think they are saying that they are paying more to the tobacco suppliers than their competitors - kind of like saying "we use quality ingredients".

    There was another ad where they put quotes from tobacco farmers that said "nobody pays more for my tobacco than..."

  • Ekaros 2 days ago

    I think modern term is "Premium". Which is more expensive than standard. Maybe it is more indirect, but it is very often there.

  • hagbard_c a day ago

    In 60 years time it will look just as strange to see product advertisements from today boasting '10% reduced CO² impact' or 'climate neutral'. I don't have a clue what they'll advertise with by that time but I do know it will look strange to those about half a century later. The advertising industry was never about objective truth, always about subjective emotions and I do not see that change other than advertising becoming ever more targeted.

paul7986 2 days ago

What is the cigarettes of today that we later learn it's not good for us or it does nothing ... recycling or drinking water from plastic bottles?

  • munchler 2 days ago

    Social media. I think many people already realize this, but it hasn’t yet hit a tipping point.

    • harvodex 2 days ago

      As an ex pack a day smoker, realizing it doesn't really matter.

      I knew the first cigarette I smoked was a cancer causing terrible idea.

      The reason I did was because I was young and most other people I knew were doing the same thing. Same with social media.

    • datavirtue 2 days ago

      Visit a psych ward on a Friday night and let me know if it hasn't hit a tipping point yet. My wife works with several people who have kids that are cutting themselves and are in and out of psych treatment and ERs.

    • paul7986 2 days ago

      And AI but it's too new but maybe it will kill the Internet (social media with it) as nothing you see starts to be truly believable.

  • nicoburns 2 days ago

    In terms of things that we allow to be advertised but probably shouldn't: sodas, medical products, politicians.

  • t0bia_s 2 days ago

    Covid vaccines, sugar, plant meat...

Hilift 2 days ago

The country was founded on tobacco. It was used as currency for the first 150 years.

  • kaonwarb 2 days ago

    This is a bit broad. Tobacco was very significant in Virginia and Maryland (which, along with North Carolina, did use it as money for a period—before the United States was an independent nation [0]). Its influence outside of that region was significant, but I wouldn't characterize it as foundational.

    [0] https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruse...

  • lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 2 days ago

    If there’s any truth to the pop culture trope of trading cigarette cartons in prisons, it possibly never stopped being used as currency.

    • failrate 2 days ago

      Cigarettes have been replaced with sealed packets of fish.

    • bitmasher9 2 days ago

      It would be black market currency now. Most US jails and prisons ban cigarettes.

marcus0x62 2 days ago

It's wild to see the ad copy promote the high cost of Camels ("costlier tobacco".) I grew up fairly poor, but my dad always had money for cigarettes and was a 2-3 pack a day smoker. Almost always Camels. Occasionally Marlboros. In any case, I don't remember them being marketed as a cigarette for people who wanted to light more money on fire than their neighbors, but perhaps I just didn't pick up on it as a kid.

During the early 90s, RJ Reynolds had a promotion called "Camel Cash", where each pack of cigarettes came with a coupon that could be redeemed for Camel merch (tshirts, beach towels, etc.) Our car was covered in cigarette ash, a vaguely sticky layer of tar, and stacks and stacks of Camel Cash. Most of the instrument cluster was obscured by Camel Cash stacked in front of it. We were Camel Cash millionaires.

  • B1FF_PSUVM 2 days ago

    > high cost of Camels ("costlier tobacco".)

    If memory serves, cigarette packs were priced fairly close to each other. They were implying they did not skimp on the quality of the source product (unlike the other brands' thieving profiteers ;-)

    • marcus0x62 2 days ago

      There were definitely "expensive" cigarettes and "cheap" cigarettes. It wasn't uncommon for my parents/their friends to go back and forth between a few brands as their fortunes changed.

      • bruce511 2 days ago
        3 more

        I worked in a small kiosk in the late 80's. Most cigarettes were the same price, but Camels were quite a bit more expensive (25% or so as I recall.) Our target market was, how shall I put it, price sensitive. The Camels weren't terribly popular :)

        • marcus0x62 2 days ago

          I remember Pall Mall and L&M as the cheaper brands. Maybe they weren’t in your area?

        • datavirtue 2 days ago

          They were also very strong and flavorful. Not something that a lot of people could handle.

sparrish 2 days ago

And people wonder why others don't "trust the science".

  • awnird 2 days ago

    You are confusing science with ad copy.

    • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago

      There was a lot of science paid by big tobacco (and big sugar and many others like hydrogenated fats), that then turned into ads.

    • adamc 2 days ago

      No, but the post implies a belief that many people will confuse the two. And it might be right.

  • Eric_WVGG 2 days ago

    It’s kind of a “tell”, right? On the face of things, it would make just as much sense to say “More software devs smoke Camels than any other cigarette.” You wouldn’t call out “doctors” unless everyone knew this was unhealthy.

  • mulmen 2 days ago

    Assertion: a tobacco company used misleading marketing practices.

    Conclusion: science is a lie.

    • weberer 2 days ago

      The actual conclusion: what the media spoonfeeds you is not science.

    • t0bia_s 2 days ago

      Conclusion: People dying.

  • exe34 2 days ago

    the antidote to bad science has always been more science by independent experts.

    what else would you suggest?

    • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago

      He was pointing out the hypocrisy in "trust the science" buzzwords used during the pandemic. Science is based on skepticism, not "trust", and being a skeptic back then was somehow considered censorship-worthy.

      edit: because i'm being rate-limited for some reason (thanks mods), i'm refering to stuff like this:

      https://web.archive.org/web/20210402002315/https://www.msnbc...

      > And we have -- we can kind of almost see the end. We`re vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don`t get sick, and that it`s not just in the clinical trials but it`s also in real world data.

      Hey, the media, the CDC, "the science" says that if you're vaccinated, you're safe, you won't infect your immunocompromised grandma, you won't get sick, you won't spread covid. I mean... don't be a skeptic, "trust" them.

      Or you can say "even if you're vaccinated, you'll still get covid and still infect grandma", and be censored from most platforms" (back then).

      • exe34 2 days ago

        no, the skepticism is for people who understand what they are being skeptical about. if you have a degree in chemistry and you disagree with one other chemist, I'd have to listen to both of you and try to make up my own mind. if you disagree with 99% of chemists, then I'm not ingesting what you suggest nor avoiding what they recommend.

        you don't get to point to Facebook posts by uncle Rob who reposts crackpot ideas 24/7 and call that "a controversy". there is such a thing as being wrong.

      • wewtyflakes 2 days ago
        17 more

        There seemed to be a lot of loud, bad-faith, antagonists in that era that likely ended up killing a lot of people. Things like drinking bleach, using de-wormer, don't get vaccines, masks are bad for you, etc... It was exhausting to hear because it got a whole big group of people to cosplay domain experts and the rest of us had to deal with the fallout of millions dying.

        • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago
          16 more

          Sure, there are nutjobs everywhere, but contrary to principles of science, everyone was told to "trust the science".

          Not "be skeptical, verify, repeat, etc.", but "trust".... you shouldn't have to blidndly trust science, that's reserved for nutjobs speaking to god by yelling into a hat, where there's no way to verify.

          Many people also got vaccinated because the science mentioned 94% (or whatever) effciveness against covid infections, about preventing spread, and guess what, trusting that killed immunocompromised grandma too.

          • wewtyflakes 2 days ago
            9 more

            > trusting that killed immunocompromised grandma too.

            This is the sort of stuff that I was referring to above. It sounds shocking and plausible, but at the end of the day, if you flatly ask someone "would you like a 10% chance to die from covid (being a grandma), or would you like (some lower %) chance to die to prevent it", then why not try?

            • sethammons 2 days ago
              6 more

              What if you ask them, instead, "would you like a 1% chance of dying of covid (being a healthy male under 40) or an unknown chance at an unknown reaction that may include myocarditis from a new treatment?", then why do it?

              For a while, this was what those around me were saying. It was much, much later that covid itself was associated with even more myocarditis than the vaccine.

              • exe34 2 days ago
                5 more

                > unknown chance

                for values of "unknown chance" well under 1 in 100,000. you sound like the same kind of American who prefers the quarter pounder to the third pounder because 4 > 3.

                • sethammons 2 days ago
                  4 more

                  I know four very negative covid vaccine reactions and zero covid anythings aside from two people saying it was the sickest they have ever felt. I don't know 100k people. Make up any stat that makes you feel smug to throw shade at my math skills. From my personal, lived experience, you can't say the sky ain't blue.

                  • exe34 2 days ago
                    3 more

                    Yes, anecdotes trump population studies any day. You really are dumb.

                    • bavell a day ago
                      2 more

                      Or perhaps the studies are flawed? (you know, what this whole thread is about?)

                      • exe34 20 hours ago

                        yes the studies are flawed, because you know four cases yourself. that's exactly how studies are proven to be flawed.

                        get your head out of your arse.

            • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago

              No, the question is, do you 'trust the science', the quote from the director of cdc:

              > And we have -- we can kind of almost see the end. We`re vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don`t get sick, and that it`s not just in the clinical trials but it`s also in real world data.

              ...and the visit grandma, who cannot get vaccinated (immunocompromised), because you're vaccinated, and don't carry the virus and don't get sick?

              Or are you one of those 'conspiracy theorists' who say "the vaccinated are carrying the virus, even if you're vaccinated, you'll still get sick and kill grandma"?

          • nicoburns 2 days ago

            The emphasis on "trust the science" is the "the science", not "trust". Everyone ultimately needs to trust something, and it is better if that is a scientific consensus than if it's what the anchors on fox news are saying.

          • exe34 2 days ago
            5 more

            > Not "be skeptical, verify, repeat, etc.", but "trust"...

            that's because you don't have the skills for it. you can't even deal with poor reporting, but you want to verify/repeat?

            did you also let your kids operate the oven before they could walk?

            • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago
              4 more

              So a direct quote by the director of the cdc is poor reporting?

              And what skills do I need? "The science" was literally changing every few days.

              Trust us, vaccinated pople don't carry the virus.

              And then a few months later "whoops".

              https://www.reuters.com/article/world/fact-checkoutdated-vid...

              > In the clip, Dr Fauci says “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

              Trust us, there's no reason to be walking around with a mask.

              And then a few weeks later, again "trust us, you need a mask".

              To simplify for you, you can trust yor girlfriend (boyfriend, whatver), but after s/he cheats on you multiple times and changes her(his) story the same amount of times, the trust is lost.

              • exe34 2 days ago
                3 more

                > "The science" was literally changing every few days"

                the world's sum total knowledge about the virus was changing from day to day - what did you want - stone tablets and burning bushes?

                the mask message made sense: they were very clear, that in the early stages, it didn't make sense for everybody to wear them (community transmission was still low) and deprive medical personnel who needed them desperately (they were far more likely to encounter the virus for reasons I hope you are smart enough to figure out for yourself - but shout out and I'll try to explain further if it's not clear).

                later on when community transmission was high and we had much larger supplies of masks, it made sense for more people to wear them, because then it would make a difference to the total transmission.

                it seems that you just wanted an all knowing parental figure to tell you what to do and never change their opinion - that's not how real life works. in the adult world, when new information becomes available, or the situation changes, the rules can be changed. this isn't church.

                and yes, even the chief of the cdc can be wrong, speak wrong, make mistakes, or get a message across poorly trying to produce short and snappy soundbites that the likes of you have a chance of remembering. but the underlying message wasn't wrong, it was correct based on available evidence at the time. it was a stressful situation and they probably didn't get much sleep for several months.

                • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago
                  2 more

                  But for science to change, you must NOT trust existing science. The opposite of what 'the science' was telling people to do - "trust science".

                  The first mask message was that you don't need a mask. If you then censor and ban everyone who says "don't listen to fauci, buy a mask", and a few weeks later ban everyone who says "listen to fauci's statement two weeks ago, you don't need a mask", who's left then? If the "science changed", then the people not trusting the first "truth" were correct in not trusting it. But we censored them and called them idiots for buying and wearing masks, before the 'science changed'. They didn't trust fauci and the science, and had masks, the ones who trusted, didn't.

                  People literally died, that could have been saved by wearing a mask before mask mandates. Also people died because they trusted the vaccines, and killed other people, because they trusted the vaccines wold prevent spread. If you trusted the CDC director and visited grandma, you might have killed her. If you didnt trust the effectiveness of vaccines, you didn't visit her, and she could be still alive.

                  We had 4 types of vaccines in my country, astrazeneca, j&j, moderna and pfizer. All of them were "safe and effective". Then astrazeneca was pulled out, because of heart issues, but the other three were safe and effective. Then j&j was pulled out. Then moderna. In my country (~2mio pop), we had 5 deaths with(!) covid in the sub 35yo group (with the wonky counting of deaths), which is less than suicide deaths, overdoses, etc. Also 1 vaccine death ( https://www.gov.si/en/news/2021-11-30-expert-commission-conf... )

                  Look, I know what you're trying to say, scientists know what they're doing, but i'm pointing out that "trust" is not the right word to be used with science. Church? Sure, trust someone with some imaginary friend, because more than trust is impossible. But with science (as you said "total knowledge about the virus was changing from day to day"), you cannot call people to 'trust' it, because (again, as you said yourself), the science was wrong and "changed" and trust is broken.

                  Also "hey, we lied to you before, because we were incompetent at buying masks for medcical workers, so we instead chose to risk your life instead" is a stupid argument. This is how you lose what little is left of "trust" in those authorities.

                  TLDR: if you trust, you're stuck with stone tablets and burning bushes (well, leeches and smoke enemas in case of medical treatments). Only with distrust can science go forwards. If we banned all the smoke-enema skeptics back then, we'd never more onwards from there.

                  • exe34 2 days ago

                    > The first mask message was that you don't need a mask. If you then censor and ban everyone who says "don't listen to fauci, buy a mask", and a few weeks later ban everyone who says "listen to fauci's statement two weeks ago, you don't need a mask", who's left then? If the "science changed", then the people not trusting the first "truth" were correct in not trusting it. But we censored them and called them idiots for buying and wearing masks, before the 'science changed'. They didn't trust fauci and the science, and had masks, the ones who trusted, didn't.

                    Firstly, nobody in the medical establishment nor government told anybody they were idiots for wearing a mask. They said masks were not necessary. Nobody censored them, you are getting your timelines confused. You should talk to a medical professional about that. The people whose comments had a "fact check" added were the ones saying you shouldn't wear a mask when it became important to wear one.

                    I think I can see where you're struggling. It's likely you are too stupid to understand it, but I'm feeling generous, so I'm going to try anyway. Early on in a pandemic, if you have 300M people, and 1% have the virus, and 1% of that shows symptoms and go to the hospital, you have 30,000 people showing up at hospitals with the potential to infect say 10 medical personel they come into contact each - so you need fully 300,000 masks being worn by the professionals. If the national supply of masks is 500,000, then it makes no sense for the whole population to wear them. The individual non-medical person is very unlikely to come across an infected person during their day, while the doctors desperately need them to be able to keep helping those who need it. Does that make sense?

                    Once there is community transmission, and 20% of the population has the virus, then the average person has a much higher probability of coming across the virus and getting infected - this was also much later in the pandemic, so the supply of masks was much higher. Then it makes sense for everybody to wear them, and cunts like you who then went around pulling them off people's faces put them at risk. Do you get it?

                    There is a very big difference here, and I really hope you get it this time, I have tried really hard to explain it.

                    > But for science to change, you must NOT trust existing science. The opposite of what 'the science' was telling people to do - "trust science".

                    Who's "you"? You? No, you're a dumb idiot. It's not about not trusting - it's about knowing that new information could justify a change in policy and not trying to hide it. This isn't the republican convention or the catholic church trying to hide criminal evidence - it's about accepting that new information can and should change your mind.

                    > People literally died, that could have been saved by wearing a mask before mask mandates.

                    I think you're full of shit. Nobody was stopped from wearing a mask if they wanted. The message was that there was no need for the general population to wear them and deprive the doctors who did absolutely need them. People with compromised immune systems were told early on to avoid crowds, to take precautions, etc. I suspect a very small number of people died from that. If you think it's a significant population, that's on you to provide evidence.

                    > Also people died because they trusted the vaccines,

                    This one is very well documented - a minuscule number of people died from the vaccines, and they had conditions that would have killed them if they got the actual virus anyway. It wasn't a vaccine specific issue.

                    > and killed other people, because they trusted the vaccines wold prevent spread. If you trusted the CDC director and visited grandma, you might have killed her. If you didnt trust the effectiveness of vaccines, you didn't visit her, and she could be still alive.

                    Again, I think you are full of shit. The people who decided to visit and kill grandma were specifically those who didn't give a shit about anybody but themselves, and were doing it anyway. They weren't likely to have been vaccinated in the first place.

                    > We had 4 types of vaccines in my country, astrazeneca, j&j, moderna and pfizer. All of them were "safe and effective". Then astrazeneca was pulled out, because of heart issues, but the other three were safe and effective. Then j&j was pulled out. Then moderna. In my country (~2mio pop), we had 5 deaths with(!) covid in the sub 35yo group (with the wonky counting of deaths), which is less than suicide deaths, overdoses, etc

                    They weren't pulled out because of heart issues, they were replaced by newer versions for the new variants. Pull your head out of your arse for once.

                    > Look, I know what you're trying to say, scientists know what they're doing, but i'm pointing out that "trust" is not the right word to be used with science. Church? Sure, trust someone with some imaginary friend, because more than trust is impossible. But with science (as you said "total knowledge about the virus was changing from day to day"), you cannot call people to 'trust' it, because (again, as you said yourself), the science was wrong and "changed" and trust is broken.

                    The word you're thinking about is faith. You want unshakable faith in the word of the great leader - you're not going to find peace that way.

      • 8note 2 days ago
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        > Hey, the media, the CDC, "the science" says that if you're vaccinated, you're safe, you won't infect your immunocompromised grandma, you won't get sick, you won't spread covid.

        to my knowledge, this is not what the science said. the science always said "if youre vaccinated, you are less likely to experience severe covid symptoms"

        • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago
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          The quote above is literally from the director of the CDC

          • exe34 2 days ago
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            who is of course, infallible, never taken out of context, and never misrepresented. he said something you didn't understand once, and therefore everybody who says something you don't want to hear must be wrong.

            did I cover everything?

            • ajsnigrutin a day ago
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              So, do we trust the director of the CDC now or not?

              What exactly didn't I understand?

              https://web.archive.org/web/20210402002315/https://www.msnbc... <- full transcript, just in case

              quote:

              > And we have -- we can kind of almost see the end. We`re vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don`t get sick, and that it`s not just in the clinical trials but it`s also in real world data.

              What exactly is misunderstood, taken out of context and misrepresented here?

              The skeptics, who didn't trust the science, didn't trust the "do not carry the virus, don't get sick,..." quote, were right again.

              I'm not saying that everyone is always wrong, i'm saying that you should blindly trust someone, because of science. Especially if they were incorrect previously. Remember the calculations of how many more vaccinations and infections are needed to reach herd immunity? Well... good luck with trusting that science too.

              NOT trusting is the basis of all science, even if people don't trust the things you don't want to hear.... and especially if it turns out that they were correct. Blocking/banning/censoring those people is the same as banning non-believers in smoke smoke enemas 200 years ago.

              • defrost a day ago

                > What exactly didn't I understand?

                The difference between casual human conversation on a late night panel show and the strict precise statements in actual papers.

                The educated with real world exposure to weed eradication, stock control,. past use of vaccines, etc didn't take the "do not carry the virus, don't get sick,..." absolutely literally as if it was deified bible quote either.

                They heard that as saying given the data to hand right now (context) that data suggests (qualifier) that the vaccinated aren't carrying the virus nor getting sick (in contrast to those unvaccinated .. as in there is a visible stark difference).

                A chat on a late panel show IS NOT "the science" and a paper on the stats coming back from trials would use actual percents, p-values, etc and make it clear.

        • lmm 2 days ago
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          The actual science, sure. But "the science" in the sense of what the media, and people arguing online, were claiming the science said, absolutely went a lot further than the evidence. It was widely claimed that the vaccines gave immunity, for example.

          • defrost 2 days ago
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            That's free speech in the US for you.

            Meanwhile, actual science, medical practitioners, have been clear for many decades that vaccines reduce infection and transmission rates, etc.

            Vaccines didn't "cure Polio" in any absolute sense, but they did make it possible to suppress it until it no longer appeared "in the wild" .. until it came back again.

            • lmm 2 days ago
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              Free speech beats the alternative. But it's important to realise that just because the media (or anyone) confidently claims something doesn't mean it's true (not generally because they're lying, just because they're wildly overconfident), and that's still true when they tell you what they're saying is "the science".

              • defrost 2 days ago

                > (US) Free speech beats the alternative(s).

                Questionable.

                > and that's still true when they tell you what they're saying is "the science".

                Ditto "the earth is flat", "they are eating the cats", "it was a lab leak", .. etc.

                These are opinions not science.

              • verdverm 2 days ago
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                There isn't one alternative, speech rights & laws are a spectrum

                It is certainly arguable that the American style is to extreme on the freedom side. There is little punishment for the immense amount of malicious lying by too many actors in the system

                • mrguyorama 2 days ago
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                  I mean, I would love to make it illegal for a journalist to say "The science says X" when the science does not say X, but understand that for nearly all science, a journalist is not equipped to know that!

                  Journalists are not scientists, and they are especially not scientists, and they do not have the foundation and fundamentals necessary to evaluate whether a paper backs up what a university PR department tells them to publish.

                  The wealth of human knowledge is insanely vast, and basically infinitely recursive. A scientist in one tiny niche of physics can barely evaluate the papers of a scientist in another tiny niche of physics. Most niches in most sciences can't even fill an auditorium with experts.

                  The most important thing to know in science is that if you are not reading the actual paper, you aren't getting scientific information but rather someone's interpretation and marketing copy. The second most important thing to know is that if you haven't written a scientific paper in the same domain, you will likely struggle to accurately interpret the results of one.

                  When everyone was freaking out over LK-99, none of the losers on here or twitter were able to accurately assess the situation, and plenty of people outright bought the lies of that russian furry who claimed to be able to reproduce it, despite any evidence. It took actual domain experts, who were always emphatic that it didn't have good enough evidence to get too excited.

                  There was a similar situation during the "Cold Fusion" nonsense in 1989. A couple chemists did some mediocre science and went on a PR tour with their "findings", quite literally saying their data was unquestionable and the rest of science needed to adapt their theories to the cold fusion data, which meanwhile was unpublished. These two fairly well trained and practiced scientists went and asked congress for something like $25 million on next to no data. An entire conference of Chemists cheered for them and their "findings". The findings were always invalid. Their experiments never generated the kinds of products you would expect from fusing deuterium.

                  If even a room full of trained chemists cannot evaluate other chemists making downright basic errors in their research, how can we possibly expect average people with no scientific experience to keep up?

                  • verdverm 2 days ago
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                    I'd focus on politicians and corporations who lie through their teeth first, not journalists. I'd focus on the blatant and provably wrong statements, like where a politician says they did this thing to bring jobs to their constituents when in fact they voted against the bill

                    • mrguyorama a day ago

                      Oh absolutely, I've long railed on about how absurdly weak and pitiful "truth in advertising" laws are in the US, but suggesting that a homeopathic medicine should not be able to call itself a "remedy" or "medicine" or anything like that drives people absolutely insane in the US. How dare you ~take away~ slightly change the label on my sugar pills!

                      Consider that, if you pay someone to say something as a "testimonial", you can say basically whatever you want and face no legal consequences. It shouldn't be the job of the average consumer to take corps to court for selling shit based on lies, yet it is.

              • exe34 2 days ago

                did you set up an independent printing press and the government came to shut you down? if so, yes, your right to free speech was indeed gravely violated!

            • ajsnigrutin 2 days ago
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              > And we have -- we can kind of almost see the end. We`re vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don`t get sick, and that it`s not just in the clinical trials but it`s also in real world data.

              This quote is literally from the director of the CDC (source in comment above). I mean.. who better to 'trust'?

              • defrost a day ago
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                It's one of several quotes repeatedly dragged up in these discussions.

                Which peer reviewed paper was that quote sourced from? Which medical conference lecture was that statement made in?

                Oh, it was from a regular simplified human to human conversation in which the CDC director was indicating a comparitive result?

                WRT ppm's etc was that an accurate call of magnitude of difference in outcomes at that time?

                • ajsnigrutin a day ago
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                  It's the director of the CDC, it's not some rando on youtube. They mentioned the CDC data.

                  Don't be a skeptic now, trust the science. If we can't trust the director of the CDC, who can we trust? Some rando on youtube saying that vaccines won't protect you from getting and spreading covid? Oh wait.. we banned those people from pretty much every social network, and guess what, they were correct.

                  Come on.. be fair.. like really... if we were discussing this in the spring of 2021, and that interview was just on tv, and i said:

                  > "well, she said that vaccinated people won't get sick, won't carry the virus, but i think that she's wrong, she didn't say stuff correctly, vaccinated people will still massively get sick and also carry and spread the virus, her 'real world data' is bullshit, i want to see her sources, she's lying without those"

                  ...what would you tell me? Would you say "yes, you're correct, it was just a human-to-human conversation, it was simplified, there's no data that her sentance is correct, there's no proof of what she said,..."? Or would you just call me an antivaxer?

            • t0bia_s 2 days ago
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              Do we have studies for this that compare two controlled groups in same environment?

              Don't fotget about "accidents" that spread Polio by vaccination on 120000 children, like Cutter incident.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories

              • defrost 2 days ago
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                > Do we have studies for this

                For many values of 'this' in the medical domain, yes.

                > Don't fotget about "accidents" that spread Polio by vaccination

                Err, the Cutter incident spread Polio via live polio virus rather than by Polio vaccination.

                Absolutely an example of a serious and deadly Quality Control f*ckup that led to a complete change in how vaccine production was approached.

                • t0bia_s 2 days ago
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                  Please, link those studies.

                  • exe34 2 days ago
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                    > Do we have studies for this that compare two controlled groups in same environment?

                    are you questioning the link between vaccines and polio almost entirely disappearing from all but about 4 countries on the planet?

                    what alternative "theory" do you have in this case?

                    • t0bia_s 2 days ago
                      3 more

                      Increasing wealth and overall hygiene.

                      99% polio cases are nowadays in developing countries.

                      • exe34 2 days ago
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                        What mechanism would you suggest connects wealth with polio?

                        • t0bia_s 2 days ago

                          I'm not sure if I understand a question. You mean how could wealth help with disapearing of polio?

          • exe34 2 days ago
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            so because the science was reported sloppily, we can't trust science - instead of educating people?

            • lmm 2 days ago
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              We can't trust people who say "the science" is on their side. We can't trust popular science reporting. If you want to know what the science actually says, you have to dig into it yourself and e.g. read some papers (and even that might not be enough - you have to know which journals are credible and which aren't).

              • exe34 2 days ago
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                But you can trust uncle Donny who comes up with crackpot theories 24/7?

                • cindycindy 2 days ago

                  It's the ups and downs from believing those ideas that people live for. They're all chasing a feeling, which is the basis of all addiction.

            • sethammons 2 days ago

              That sloppy reporting _is_ the educating of people.

  • 01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2 days ago

    Do you know why I only drink grain alcohol, Mandrake?

  • krapp 2 days ago

    Which science don't you trust, the science that once said smoking is harmless or the science which currently says smoking is harmful? Or do you cover all your bases and just not trust science regardless?

    • jdietrich 2 days ago

      "The science" never said that smoking is harmless. Concerns were being raised as early as the 1930s and epidemiological evidence had conclusively demonstrated the link between tobacco smoking, lung cancer and cardiovascular disease by the early 1950s. The tobacco industry pursued a relentless campaign to cast doubt on that science, which was so successful that even today people imagine that there was once an actual controversy.

      https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2085438/

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Frank_Statement

      • ty6853 2 days ago
        2 more

        The tobacco industry also shifted to the most deadly form, cigarettes. Casual low use cigar smokers that don't inhale ( proper way to smoke cigar ) iirc have lower lung cancer and higher life expectancy than non smokers. Pipes and cigar were generally better especially when used in moderation even against moderate cigarette smoking.

        Although generally the US just has bad tobacco habits. 'European' style smoking of a cigarette with coffee a couple times a week likely will kill you slower than whatever was going to get you like cooking and eating smoky grilled meats.

        • HeyLaughingBoy a day ago

          What are you implying here? That Europeans don't get addicted to nicotine?

    • janalsncm 2 days ago

      It’s a category error. “Science” doesn’t have a pope. It isn’t whatever the latest scientist says. Science is a process for figuring things out.

    • renewiltord 2 days ago

      One who believes in that line trusts neither, one imagines. The thing that people often misunderstand about not trusting something is that it is different from believing it is guaranteed to be wrong. Not trusting something means that it doesn't provide evidence. i.e. if you don't trust some source X, and X provides some evidence X_A about some event A then not trusting them means that P(A|X_A) ~= P(A) your prior probability.

      People often interpret the "I don't trust X" statement to be "belief in the opposite", i.e. P(¬A|X_A) = 1. This is obviously stupid since someone you distrust could happily manufacture evidence for ¬A and then you'd conclude P(¬¬A|X_¬A) = 1 so they could make you believe anything, which is obviously not something you want someone you distrust to do to you.

      • skygazer 2 days ago

        I'm not sure that's correct in practice. The people that harbor vocal distrust in agencies, professions, etc. really do seem more apt to directly believe whatever is in opposition to the "distrusted" message. While your proposal remains a logical alternative to them, adoption seems markedly low.

      • fullshark 2 days ago

        Nah, they "believe" in that line when the science says anything that contradicts their priors. When the science says anything that confirms them they ingest and cite it gladly.

    • wahern 2 days ago

      Was there ever any sustained science that claimed smoking was harmless? AFAIU, smoking was considered by the general population as not good for you health since at least the early 20th century, and before then as at least a vice (as was caffeine!). By mid century there was sustained scientific output showing clear links to cancer, solidifying cigarettes as an acute hazard to your health even if the scope and magnitude of the harms were less than we know today. Tobacco companies and their defenders countered this sentiment using the same tools used today--dissembling, whataboutism, and your basic FUD techniques. You can't look at ads promoting cigarettes and assume most people accepted what they're communicating at face value.

      Anyhow, almost everybody knows today that, for example, eating too much sugar is bad for you, but the majority of the population still does it. That's how humans behave. Often times people do something because it's bad, taboo, or dangerous. And not everybody centers their lifestyle around good health; some people are just trying to get through the day. Today we still have doctors who smoke, dentists who drink soda, etc, though those particular vices are less popular than they once were. And let's not forget, while cigarette smoking has been in free fall doctors have been happily handing out prescriptions to smoke marijuana, even though inhaling marijuana smoke is at least as harmful as cigarettes (most people smoke it less frequently, but that's beside the point). Just because something is accepted as normal doesn't mean the harms are being outright denied.